Swiss market: expectations for 2019

New exhaust gas readings show effect
The new regulation of exhaust gas measurement values (WLTP-based), which has been in force since September 2018, has left a clear mark on the new vehicle market. Between the beginning of 2018 and the end of September, 2.7 percent fewer new cars were registered year-on-year. September contributed around 70 percent to this decline. For 2018 as a whole, BAK expects new registrations to fall by 1.3 percent to just under 310,000 passenger cars - provided the backlogs caused by the lack of WLTP licensing can be largely compensated for by the end of the year.

Used car market causes concern
The diesel issue and sharply falling prices in the new car segment have significantly clouded the business situation in the used car market. However, the latest figures indicate a gradual easing in this regard. According to BAK's estimates, the used car market can be expected to grow again next year.

Rising prices in the workshop business
The sales trend in the workshop business has been declining since 2013. The main reason for this is the obligation to carry out exhaust gas maintenance, which has been abolished since 2013 for all vehicles equipped with an on-board diagnostic (OBD) system. As a result, local garages have lost a total of 13 percent of their sales volume. For the current year, BAK expects that the exhaust maintenance effect will for the first time be weaker than the increase in sales due to the higher vehicle population, and forecasts a 1.6 percent growth in garage sales. This trend reversal will also be evident next year and ensure rising sales.

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