Garage suppliers: gloomy mood in the fall
BACKGROUND According to a survey, the situation for garage suppliers is cloudy compared with the previous quarter. However, the level is still appealing; this is expected to remain so in Q4 2019. In terms of sales, the qualification has shifted from "good" to "satisfactory", according to SAA swiss automotive aftermarket. Still at 40% (previous quarter 57%) is [...]
In terms of sales, the qualification has shifted from "good" to "satisfactory" according to SAA swiss automotive aftermarket. Sales are still good at 40% (previous quarter 57%) and satisfactory at 55% (previous quarter 38%). As in the previous quarter, 5% report poor sales.
Employment situation remains good
The most important indicator, "earnings situation," also showed a slight decline. The earnings situation is still good for 29% (previous quarter 38%). For 71% it is satisfactory (previous quarter 60%) and for no company (previous quarter 2%) bad.
Accordingly, it is encouraging that all reporting SAA members (previous quarter 98%) assess the earnings situation as good or satisfactory. The employment situation is still perceived by 55% (previous quarter 60%) as good, 43% (previous quarter 40%) as satisfactory and 2% (previous quarter 0%) of the companies as poor.
Trend forecast for the 4th quarter
The trend forecast values suggest little change for Q4 2019. The majority of those reporting (81%) forecast that the earnings situation will remain the same or improve. As many as 55% (previous quarter 67%) estimate that earnings will remain the same and 26% (previous quarter 21%) expect an improvement. Unfortunately, 19% (previous quarter 12%) of those reporting expect the earnings situation to deteriorate.
Expectations for sales
In terms of sales, 14% (previous quarter 10%) expect a decrease. As before, 48% of the companies anticipate increasing values and 38% (previous quarter 43%) expect the situation to remain unchanged. An unchanged 19% of SAA members expect the employment situation to improve, 76% to remain unchanged (previous quarter 79%) and 5% to worsen (previous quarter 2%).
The figures for headcount are similar: unchanged 76% (previous quarter 76%), increasing 19% (previous quarter 21%) and decreasing 5% (previous quarter 2%). None of the companies surveyed plans to introduce short-time work.
With regard to the cost trend in the personnel area, fewer companies expect costs to rise. Still 24% (previous quarter 40%) of the companies expect an increase, 71% (previous quarter 60%) expect unchanged and 5% (previous quarter 0%) expect decreasing personnel costs. The materials cost trend shows that 40% (previous quarter 36%) of SAA members expect costs to increase, 57% (previous quarter 57%) expect costs to remain the same, and 2% (previous quarter 7%) expect costs to decrease.
General economic development
The outlook for the Swiss economy and the international environment deteriorated in the course of 2019. The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) forecasts GDP growth of 0.8% for 2019 and 1.7% for 2020. The Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research (KOF) at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) in Zurich is revising its GDP growth forecasts for 2019 from 1.6% to 0.9%.
The forecast for 2020 is also revised from 2.3% to 1.9%. In 2021, the KOF expects growth of 1.5%. For Switzerland, the greatest economic risks continue to lie abroad. The downturn in the global economy is dampening the Swiss economy, which is slowing down exports and investments.
